AUTHORS: Tim Gore

Modelling of the distributional impacts of the proposed Energy Taxation Directive reform and Emissions Trading Scheme extension shows these polluter pays policies can help fight inequality and the climate crisis.

Two politically sensitive reforms

The proposed Energy Taxation Directive (ETD) reform and extension of the Emissions Trading Scheme to buildings and road transport (ETS2) are two of the most politically sensitive elements of the European Commission’s Fit for 55 legislative package.

On one hand, the proposals would significantly expand the application of the polluter pays principle across the EU, eliminating swathes of fossil fuel subsidies and capping emissions in two laggard sectors in the energy transition. But on the other hand, given that energy costs constitute a higher share of expenditure of lower-income households, who are less able to change consumption behaviour in response to higher prices, many stakeholders are concerned that the proposals risk entrenching inequality.

New evidence of progressive distributional impacts

We provide new evidence from a microsimulation model developed by the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) with IEEP and five other partners in the Think Sustainable Europe (TSE) network to assess the direct, overnight distributional impacts of both measures on households. We show that if carefully designed – including well-directed revenue-recycling, and alongside complementary policy measures – the proposals can achieve clearly progressive impacts. In short, they could serve as a tool to fight both inequality and the climate crisis.

You can also have a look at the national reports by Think Sustainable Europe members who are partners in this project:

BC3 (Spain)

• Impacto Social y distributivo de la revisión de la Directiva sobre Fiscalidad Energetica en España (in Spanish)
• Modelling the direct socioeconomic impacts of the New Energy Taxation Directive (ETD) and the extension of the ETS on transport and building sectors (in English)

Ecologic Institute (Germany)

• Can Polluter Pays Policies in the Buildings and Transport Sectors be Progressive? (in English)

Wise Europa (Poland)

• Czy opodatkowanie emisji dwutlenku węgla może być progresywne? (in Polish)
• Executive Summary (in English)

AMO (Czech Republic)

• Progresivní redistribuce výnosů ze zdanění energie a emisních povolenek: Posouzení dopadů vybraných částí balíčku Fit for 55 na české domácnosti (in Czech) 

IDDRI (France)

• Fit for 55 package: analysis of the distributional impact on European households of energy pricing in buildings and transport (in French)

Energia Klub (Hungary)

• LAKOSSÁGI REZSITÁMOGATÁS A FIT FOR 55-BÓL? (in Hungarian)