After two weeks of intense debates and negotiations at COP28 to progress efforts against climate change, the United Kingdom appears to be facing challenges that have impacted its leadership role on the global stage. Despite the UK’s recent commitments to climate action, including its pivotal role in hosting COP26 in 2021, several factors have contributed to a perceived decline in its influence leading into COP28. But looking behind the headlines, is this perception accurate?

The UK’s climb to the top table of climate leadership…

The UK Parliament was the first to pass an Environment and Climate Emergency national declaration in 2019, bringing a unified sense of urgency to tackle the issue of climate change. It provided hope that rhetoric would soon turn to action to tackle the climate breakdown. Since then, the UK’s Net Zero Strategy, published in 2021 made the UK the first major economy to create legally binding net zero targets by 2050 .

That same year, the Scottish city of Glasgow played host to the UN’s COP26, a landmark meeting where states had to present their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for the first time, to ensure that countries’ efforts remained consistent with Paris Agreement goals. The UK’s COP Presidency worked hard to reach consensus on key outcomes, such as the finalisation of the ‘Paris Rule Book’, which defined common rules for reporting transparency and consistency, and an agreement in principle to create a system to financially support climate-vulnerable countries to adapt to risks posed by climate change.

This granted new impetus in the UK to cement its position as a climate leader,  which saw an increase in offshore wind production and renewable electricity generation to nearly half of the country’s energy mix in 2022, bringing forward the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by five years, and ambitious reductions in coal extraction.

Undelivered ambition…

Since COP26, gaps have emerged between rhetoric and policy deliverability. Boris Johnson’s premiership put on show many of these inconsistencies. An example of such would be the decision to expand offshore wind power generation in the North Sea alongside the decision to increase oil and gas production there. While oil and gas might still be necessary in the future until Net Zero is achieved, it “does not in itself justify the development of new North Sea fields”, according to the UK Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) advice.

In addition, Liz Truss’ period as Prime Minister after Boris Johnson and the effects of her government’s short-lived ‘mini-budget’ also reshaped the national discourse around Net Zero objectives today, now largely focussed on the costs of the green transition as a reason for delayed action.

Since Rishi Sunak took over, the UK’s environmental policy landscape has witnessed a further shift in policy direction and regulatory frameworks. Most notably, the recent push to remove large swathes of environmental and climate protection laws inherited from decades of EU membership under the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Act 2023, resulted in the loss of many environmental protections and put those still in place in a precarious situation until the revocation period ends in December 2026. Particularly worrying are the removal of regulations on air quality, and the risk of repealing standards on water quality and biodiversity protections.

In addition, pledges to increase extraction rates of oil and gas in the North Sea, adding new licenses for oil field exploration, and the delay of key, legally-binding Net Zero targets like delaying the ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars back to 2035 and the ban on new fossil fuel boilers, underlines a departure from evidence-based environmental policymaking towards deregulation and delayed action. This, in turn, not only creates uncertainty over the UK’s likelihood to remain on track on its domestic climate objectives, but also reduces its credibility internationally as a reliable partner committed to lead the race towards Net Zero.

In conclusion: How can the UK recover?

As explained above, rhetoric has not always matched delivery of Net Zero targets, which have commonly been caveated by other conflicting needs.

More concerningly, where before UK rhetoric revolved around “world-leading” targets, the language has now reverted to “pragmatic” terms. From Boris Johnson’s bombastic pleas for “humanity to grow up” and face the reality of climate change, to Rishi Sunak’s measured “proportionate and realistic” approach to green policy, there is a healthy middle to be struck. Returning to policymaking informed by scientific evidence can help deliver the UK’s ambitious climate agenda in a just and equitable manner while protecting fragile ecosystems.

024 will likely bring a general election in the United Kingdom, with a strong possibility that there could be a new government taking over the reins.  Will climate and the environment be a defining election issue? Is there a danger that if it does, it becomes a political football where no-one, certainly not the planet, is the winner?

Any International leadership the UK can claim will only come with the successful navigation of domestic ambitions. A good start would be a commitment to divest from further oil and gas production and accelerating the transition towards renewable energy. Applying the environmental principles policy statement and Net Zero considerations to all policymaking, implementing the key recommendations made by the CCC, and providing a clearer delivery path of 2030 and 2050 targets would also reaffirm domestic commitments to Paris objectives.

Abroad, appointing a State-level Climate envoy, vacant since April 2023, would also reinforce the UK’s commitment to climate change to international partners. As we approach the review of our NDCs at COP30, the real test will come in whether our national plans for climate change mitigation and adaption can stand up against the best that the rest of the world has to offer.

Photo by Rui Chamberlain on Unsplash