AUTHORS: Malcolm Fergusson

This report seeks to address future energy demand in the transport sector, as an input to the PIU’s review of UK energy policy. It seeks to cover all subsectors of the transport sector, although the principal focus is on road vehicles and, secondarily, on aviation. Further, the main focus is on future vehicle and fuel technologies. That is, the scale and conditions of future transport demand are for this purpose taken largely as a ‘given’ which provides the context of the study, although they are mentioned in some places and are, of course, a critical determinant of future levels of transport energy demand and environmental impacts.

The first and largest part of the report therefore consists of a brief technology assessment of future fuels and vehicles across the various transport subsectors, which characterises the energy and environmental attributes of each option; its technical and commercial potential; indicative date and scale of introduction; and, where possible, its costs. The second part discusses the refuelling infrastructure implications of the main alternative fuelling pathways for future vehicles, while the final section summarises the main drivers and constraints on the pathway to the various alternative transport energy futures. It also presents a ‘vision’ of one possible development path up to the year 2050.